England are sweating on a place among the top seeds for the World Cup draw here in Cape Town on Friday.
Fabio Capello will discover England’s fate on Wednesday when the World Cup organising committee meet to agree on the criteria.
The Football Association expected FIFA to consider the last two tournaments and recent world rankings in selecting the seven nations who will join hosts South Africa in the pot of top seeds.
Had that been the criteria, England, having been ranked sixth in 2002 and seventh in Germany four years ago, would virtually have been guaranteed joining Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Italy, France and the hosts in the seeded group.
The other eight European qualifiers would then make up the second group, with Africa’s five qualifiers plus Paraguay, Chile and Uruguay in the next pot, and the eight qualifiers from Asia, Oceania and North and Central America in the fourth tier.
But Capello’s men are under threat for their place from a growing lobby for the final seedings to be determined on world rankings alone, which would see Holland pip England for a place in the first bracket.
England were ranked seventh in October - which is the last ranking FIFA will take into account - but prior, to the 2002 World Cup, an average was taken over three years to determine the seedings. On that basis, England would be outside the top seven and behind France. Holland are currently third in the rankings, having been above England throughout the past three years.
Had England won in Ukraine in October - they lost 1-0 after Robert Green was sent off at the start of the game - they would have edged above Argentina in that month’s rankings, which FIFA have confirmed will be used in the process.
A FIFA insider said: ‘There is no front-runner in terms of how the seedings will be decided and there will be arguments.
‘It is the case that seedings in 2002 and 2006 were determined by a mixture of previous results and rankings. But there is a view that we need to make the rankings mean more, especially as every match played by every nation, including friendlies, contribute.
‘There are members of the organising committee who plan to argue that this is the chance to make the world rankings more important.
‘At this stage, nobody knows what will happen or what criteria will be used. It depends on which members of the organising committee make the strongest argument.’
Worryingly for Capello, England is not represented on the organising committee. But France - through Michel Platini - Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Germany and South Africa are.
As are Portugal, in the form of Portuguese FA president Gilberto Madail, and they are likely to propose an alternative plan, putting weight on performances during Euro 2008 - which might allow his nation to edge England out.
It means an anxious night for Capello, due to arrive in Cape Town on Thursday and keen to avoid having to take on a big gun in the group phase. A worst-case scenario might see England in a group including Brazil and Ivory Coast, as well as a team like Australia.
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